Fox and
CNN have stories about Newt Gingrich testing the water for a presidential run in 2012. To his credit, the Republican field is wide open and if he can position himself to fill a leadership vacuum in the mid-term elections this November he'll start to get some positive buzz. It looks like he wants to capture a little of that 1994 magic and see if he can lead another Republican Revolution, upsetting
Obama's apple cart the same way he did Bill Clinton's.
It could work for him. If he spends 2010 pushing a mixture of populist opinions, conservative values and hammers President Obama on every policy initiative he could start to build up grass roots support. Newt's no dummy. He can do professorial (although not as well as the president) and he has the political wiles about him to zero in on what Tea Party supporters are upset about so he can play right to them.
On the other hand, people remember Gingrich as the guy who let government shutdown without a budget, who had difficulty compromising legislatively and as the leader who put party above effective governing.
His current criticism of the president feels stale in some respects already. He wants to repeal health care reform but once people get used to insurance companies not being allowed to reject them for
pre-existing conditions it's going to be hard to scare up votes. No legislator is going to want to be seen as the person fighting for the right of insurance companies to say your uncle with MS can't have coverage. As the outsider it's easy for the former Speaker of the House to ask Republican candidates to take a pledge to repeal this bill. As candidates they won't want to put themselves in that position.
Mr. Gingrich faults President Obama for being 'radical', as if it's a bad thing for a leader to want to shake things up. In his three step plan he says Republicans should refuse to fund any objectionable Obama legislation. Well, they consider everything objectionable so this nasty gridlock we've seen over the past year will continue. Is that really good for the country?
The
biggest hurdle to Mr. Gingrich's candidacy is going to be the Republicans themselves. Everyone remembers that the recession started on President Bush's watch. Real wages didn't increase over the course of his two terms. People will remember that as conservatives, the Congress from 2001-2007 cut taxes, authorized two wars, didn't put the war costs on the budget and increased entitlement spending. Many of these legislators will still be in office in 2012. Why do we believe they would act any differently under a President Gingrich?
These are high hurdles for Mr. Gingrich to o
vercome. If President Obama continues to pass legislation that is seen as good policy for Americans and the Republicans continue to be the party of no, only one party is going to have accomplishments to run on in 2012.